SNL Kagan’s 2008 edition of “Economics of Basic Cable Networks” predicts slow but steady growth for cable ad revenue over the next 10 years. Some highlights from the study:
· Total industry multichannel subscribers are expected to grow 1.3 percent per year, roughly half the rate witnessed between 1998 and 2007.
· Total industry ad revenue is expected to increase at an annual rate of 8.1 percent, slower than the 11.6 percent posted over the previous decade.
· Total industry revenue is expected to grow 8.9 percent per year, with affiliate fees decelerating to a growth rate of 9.5 percent per year over the next ten years versus a 16.1 percent growth rate over the previous decade.
· Total industry cash flow is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.8 percent per year, reaching almost $40 billion by 2017.
· The average industry cash flow margin is expected to rise from 36.4 percent in 2008 to 42.5 percent by 2017.