Research Firm Predicts Plenty Of 2011 Surprises

Here are a few things to ponder about 2011: Facebook could team with Google, Apple and Microsoft to develop a world-beating cloud-TV service. Social networks will pass a billion users, and more than 500 million connected TV devices will be in use. Revenues from tablet computers will top revenues from netbook sales, but only 20 percent of 3D TV owners will be watching 3D content.

These thoughts are being kicked around by research firm Strategy Analytics. “2011 promises to be another exciting year in the evolution of the digital home,” says David Mercer, principal analyst. “Many of the key elements of the next-generation home are now in place, such as connected devices, high-speed broadband and advanced user interfaces. It’s up to key players to pull these together to create compelling experiences and drive added value.”

He continues, “The battles between content owners, technology vendors and service providers for access to consumer revenues will continue. The field is still wide open for any of these players to take a leadership position in the emerging ecosystem. And there will always be opportunities for new players like Facebook to appear from nowhere and threaten established positions.”

The group’s latest survey of the U.S. connected consumer-electronics device markets indicates that total revenues will reach $130 billion by the end of this year, a growth rate of 7 percent when compared with 2009 numbers. And forecasts for 2010 indicate a positive growth rate of 9 percent in unit sales. For network-enabled CE devices, the firm predicts a 34-percent unit growth in 2010 and 21-percent market value growth at $88 billion.

Here are some of Strategy Analytics’ digital-home predictions for the new year:

• Tablet revenues will exceed netbooks
• Connected TV platform wars will heat up
• 3D TV will begin a long journey to mass-market adoption
• Service providers will manage your home
• We still will be waiting for advanced TV advertising
• The end of the remote control is nigh
• Studios will push Electronic Sell-Through (EST)

And here are some of the group’s “first time” statistics milestones for 2011:

• More than 1.5 billion people worldwide will be using home broadband services.
• Worldwide broadband fiber (FTTx) will exceed cable-modem subscriptions.
• Global TV-industry revenues will exceed $400 billion.
• The number of people using social networks globally will exceed 1 billion.
• The number of connected-TV devices in use worldwide will exceed 500 million.