SNL Kagan projects moderate annual growth of 2.1% for total multichannel subs going forward (108.5mln by ’12) but foresees a dip in cable’s market share from 64% to 59% within 5 years. Telcos’ market share will jump to 9% from 3% by ’12, said the firm, while satcasters will lose share due to unavailability of bundled voice/data packages and limits to on-demand delivery. 10% of OTA HHs are expected to opt for multichannel services before the DTV transition, with cable likely to receive the majority of converts. — 1Q marked the 1st Q since 3Q04 that cable (1.2mln) added more broadband subs than telcos (1mln), according to Leichtman Research. Cable ops currently count a total of 34.7 broadband subs, compared to telcos’ 29.5mln. Comcast (492K) nipped AT&T (491K) in 1Q net adds, although the latter continues to lead all providers with 14.6mln broadband subs. Comcast (14.1mln), Verizon (8.5mln), Time Warner Cable (7.9mln) and Cox (3.8mln) complete the top 5. Overall, 1Q broadband adds amounted to three-fourths of those of a year ago, with cable tallying 84% as many as 1Q07 and telcos up 67%.

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