Five-Year Forecast Shows PON Growth

Research company Dell’Oro Group forecasts a recovery in the access market in 2010 due to increasing numbers of service provider upgrade projects combined with an improving global economy.

After total worldwide revenues for DSL, cable, and PON access equipment declined 12 percent in 2009, revenues are expected to grow 3 percent in 2010 to almost $9 billion, with the strongest growth over the next five years coming from PON equipment revenues, followed by cable.

Conversely, DSL market revenues are expected to decline in each of the next five years, a trend that began in 2007.?

“Operators will continue to upgrade their access networks to address increasing Internet traffic, enable new revenue-generating services, and be competitive in the broadband ‘speed’ race," said Tam Dell’Oro, founder of Dell’Oro Group. “We believe that many telecom network upgrades will utilize PON technology and expect both EPON and GPON shipments to grow annually for the next five years, with each having about equal revenue shares of the total PON market in 2014."

"We also believe that DOCSIS 3.0 CMTS port shipments will show strong growth through 2014, driven in part by cable operators migrating to a switched digital video model delivered over their access network,” added Dell’Oro.