Cisco has announced the results of its annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast 2009-2014, which projects that global Internet traffic will increase more than fourfold to 767 exabytes, or more than 3/4 of a Zettabyte, by 2014. This amount is 100 exabytes higher than the projected level in 2013, or an increase the equivalent of 10 times all the traffic traversing Internet Protocol networks in 2008.
The growth in traffic will continue to be dominated by video, exceeding 91 percent of global consumer IP traffic by 2014. Improvements in network bandwidth capacity and Internet speeds, along with the increasing popularity of HDTV and 3DTV are key factors expected to quadruple IP traffic from 2009 to 2014.
The VNI Forecast was developed as an annual study to estimate global IP traffic growth and trends. Projections are based on Cisco analysis and modeling of traffic, usage, and device data from independent analyst sources.
- The nearly 64 exabytes of global IP traffic per month projected for 2014 is equivalent to 16 billion DVDs; 21 trillion MP3’s; or 399 quadrillion text messages.
- By 2014, the highest IP-traffic generating regions will be North America (19.0 exabytes per month), Asia Pacific (17.4 exabytes per month), Western Europe (16.2 exabytes per month) and Japan (4.3 exabytes per month).
- The fastest growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2009-2014) are Latin America (51 percent compound annual growth rate [CAGR], 7.9-fold growth), the Middle East and Africa (45 percent CAGR, 6.5-fold growth), and Central Europe (38 percent CAGR, 5.1-fold growth).
- By 2014, the sum of all forms of video (TV, VOD, Internet video, and peer-to-peer) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic.
- Global Internet video traffic will surpass global peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010. For the first time in the last 10 years, peer-to-peer traffic will not be the largest Internet traffic type.
- The global online video community will include more than 1 billion users by the end of 2010.
- By 2014, it would take more than two years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second; to watch all the video crossing the network that year would take 72 million years.
- Globally, advanced video traffic, including 3-D and high-definition TV, is projected to increase 13 times between 2009 and 2014.
- By 2014, 3-D is expected to account for 4 percent of total Internet video traffic.
- By 2014, 3-D and HD video is forecast to comprise 42 percent of total consumer Internet video traffic.