Time Warner Cable shares fell 4% Mon after Pali‘s Rich Greenfield lowered the stock to "Sell" from "Neutral." The analyst reduced his estimate for ’09 EBITDA growth at the MSO to 7.9% from 9.6%, citing TW’s increasing competition (particularly in NYC) and a weakening economy that drives people to listen to competing offers more closely. Sanford Bernstein compiled a long list of facts on Verizon vs TWC NYC, including that NYC represents about 10% of the MSO’s footprint and that the telco’s buildout isn’t slated to be complete until ’14. The firm’s conclusion was hazy: "One immediately recognizes the challenge in forecasting a material impact on the cable operators, and particularly on Time Warner Cable, whose exposure is relatively low."

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