Network Research Execs’ Appeal to Critics: Move Beyond Live+Same Day
FX announced last week that it’s no longer going to recognize Live+Same Day ratings because of the inaccurate picture they paint about a show’s viewership numbers. To drive home this point, provide background for the decision and suggest a solution moving forward, the network presented a panel of heavy-hitters in programming research to members of the Television Critics Association in Los Angeles earlier this week.
FX cited the well-received series “Fargo” as an example of the less-than-ideal portrait Live+Same Day ratings paint. The show brings in around 2 million people a week when using this measurement, yet the number jumps to nearly 7 million a week when looking at Live+7, according to a spokesperson.
“I don’t think there’s a research or programming or marketing or communication executive among us who hasn’t woken up to a Live+Same Day rating and been somewhat disappointed, only to be cheered 5 days later when the Nielsen tide brings in a Live+3 and, in due course, a Live+7 VOD and digital,” said Julie Piepenkotter, evp of research, FX Networks. “We believe that the only real relevance of Live or Live+Same Day data is for sports, news, and live events. For series programming, especially scripted series, the additional data that comes via time shifting VOD and digital has become imperative to properly and accurately report the story,” she said.
According to Piepenkotter, the network’s longest running series “Sons of Anarchy” provides an example. Over the years Live+Same day viewership has declined markedly (85% to 60%) as DVR penetration in FX homes has grown from nearly 30% to 50%. The series’ most recent season shows that just 40% of total audience (which would be Live+7, encores and VOD) watched its first telecast live. Moreover, when you look at new series such as Fargo and “Tyrant,” the premieres are watched live just 55% of the time.
Her appeal: “We understand that you can’t wait 21 days for Live+7, but we think the five days for Live+3 is worth the wait to more accurately and responsibly report the story.”
Broadcast networks are in a similar boat. Will Somers, svp of Fox Network Research, said that the average lift from Live+Same to Live+7 Day is about 40% across the big four. His solution was to offer projections of not only Live+7 Day but also 30-day multiplatform delivery, claiming that such projections have proved accurate “within plus or minus 5%.”
And then there are the premium customers at networks like Showtime. Kim Lemon, evp of program planning and scheduling and research, insisted that they’re the first households to adopt new technology, so DVR, On Demand and out-of-home viewing affects ratings considerably. Showtime homes have had On Demand products since 2002 and 80-85% homes have DVRs, he said. As a result, “for the last five or six years we’ve been completely and totally focused on a multiplatform total week number as a measurement of our shows,” he said. For a show like “Homeland,” 70% of total week ratings are coming in on a delayed basis, making “the proportion of live viewing over the course of the week… almost the mirror opposite of what it was in 2006.”
So what’s the solution? FX’s Piepenkotter is working with Nielsen to aggregate a Live+35 rating this fall. “We want to see the post 7 days, so it will be the 8- through 35 day usage of our scripted dramas.” David F. Poltrack, chief research officer of CBS Corp. and president of CBS Vision, is looking forward to Nielsen adapting to measure TV viewing that’s out-of-home. In the meantime, he hopes that projections will suffice, promising that, if anything, each network will ensure the other’s accuracy simply because they compete against one another. “If one of us starts giving you a lot of bullshit projections, the other ones are going to let you know,” he said. “You’ve got us to check each other.”
The truth is, many critics simply can’t wait on the more accurate ratings and may not be comfortable with citing projections in lieu of actual ratings. One thing is certain: for the above-mentioned networks—particularly those with high household DVR penetration–Live+Same Day is woefully inadequate. “Our point is that it’s more of getting off the Live+Same Day. It’s really moving more towards more Live+3 and Live+7,” Piepenkotter said.
